AGOA ‘at crossroads’ but Kenya’s Ruto confident about trade pact renewal under Trump

The African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) is “at a crossroads”, faced with an uncertain future under the incoming Donald Trump administration in the United States, says a new analysis by the New York-based Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), though Kenya’s president has exuded confidence that the US government will extend the hallmark trade program with sub-Saharan Africa.
“The question is not whether the act will survive under a second Trump administration, but how it will evolve,” say the CFR analysis entitled ‘AGOA at a Crossroads’. The language used by president-elect Donald Trump indicates a period of radical transformation in global trade when he enters the White House in January, which in turn raises questions about the possible scenarios facing the AGOA) that is set to expire in September next year. According to the analysis, the fate of the hallmark trade program between the US and sub-Saharan Africa under Trump’s administration is not yet sealed. “The question of its evolution — namely, whether it expands or becomes a coercive tool — will largely depend on how sub-Saharan Africa’s geo-strategic significance, combined with geopolitical developments, come to influence a second Trump administration,” it says.
This view was also confirmed last week by Kenya’s president William Ruto who sought to allay fears on the prospects for the renewal of the AGOA trade pact by Washington. Ruto exuded confidence that the US government will extend the trade deal, allaying fears that the change of guard following the incoming Trump administration would hamper the renewal plans. “I have it on the authority of many of my friends in that country and I believe that the new administration is also going to support our AGOA plan,” Ruto said. Being a major beneficiary of AGOA, Kenya is the largest garment exporter under the trade program, well ahead of Lesotho, and with higher exports than Mauritius and Madagascar combined.