Sahara: Algerian regime searching for a way to save face!
After the failure of its polisario separatist project becoming a ticking time bomb and after suffering diplomatic setbacks in its showdown against neighboring Morocco, the Algerian regime has started looking for a way out for survival in a new geopolitical landscape.
According to experts, 2025 will be the year of the closure of the Sahara issue in favor of Morocco as the Trump administration, France, Spain and other superpowers are pushing for the final resolution of the Sahara regional conflict on the basis the autonomy plan offered by Morocco under its sovereignty as the ONLY realistic solution to this issue.
After nearly five decades of fruitless UN efforts to advance a political solution due to the Algerian rulers’ intransigence, they are now faced with US-led international ultimatum: either to accept the “realistic, serious, and credible” autonomy plan proposed by Morocco in 2007 or bear the consequences.
Among these consequences, the designation of the Polisario as a terrorist organization and labeling Algeria as a state sponsor of terrorism. Such designations would have serious economic and political implications for the Algerian junta, de facto rulers, with deepening socioeconomic and political crises and strained relations with neighboring countries and international partners.
In a bid to weather the coming storm gathering force, the deceptive Algerian rulers have tried by all means to woo Trump inner circle, offering access to their country’s oil & natural resources as well as normalization of relations with Israel in return for political support. But all their attempts, which show their frailty, insecurity, and predicament, have failed.
The same strategy was used with the United Arab Emirates, one of Morocco’s staunch supporters, but to no avail, leading to their hysteria and brinkmanship.
According to press reports, Algeria has asked Oman to engage mediation with Morocco and Israel. These reports emerged following the recent visit paid by Sultan Haitham bin Tarek to Algeria. Some analysts say Oman’s neutral foreign policy and diplomatic ties with Algiers and Rabat make Muscat appear as a potential mediator.
However, mediation attempts between Algeria and Morocco had been in the past unsuccessful, with Algeria rejecting a Spanish mediation offer in 2021 and dismissed Saudi efforts in 2022.
Algeria had consistently rejected mediation viewing international growing support for Morocco’s sovereignty over its Sahara and its ties with Israel as provocations.
Morocco appears more open to dialogue but is unwilling to compromise on its Sahara. The EU and other powers like the U.S. could play roles in de-escalation, but Algeria’s distrust of Western mediators and Morocco’s diplomatic gains complicate prospects.
According to intelligence reports, secret emergency meetings were held lately between Algerian President Abdemajid Tebboune, army chief Said Chengriha and their top advisors to discuss the fate of the Polisario, the alarming situation in the Tindouf camps, and the risk of the establishment of a Sahrawi micro-state within the Algerian state.
They also discussed the establishment of a buffer zone around Tindouf camps, preparing a regional mediation with neutral countries to reach a negotiated deal but without appearing as a loser of the conflict, fearing accountability over spending billions of petrodollars on a lost cause.
What is certain, is that the balance of regional power has shifted in favor of Morocco and the Algerian regime is not in a position to dictate its own terms!