AGOA expulsion to prompt South Africa, others to diversify export markets

As South Africa and possibly also other continental states face the real possibility of being expelled from the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), a United States Trade Act, experts are urging them to diversify their export markets.
Wamkele Mene, secretary-general of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) Secretariat, addressed concerns at a recent AfCFTA private sector roundtable in Johannesburg. Mene pointed to Ethiopia’s successful pivot to China after its AGOA expulsion in 2022, demonstrating that South Africa could similarly expand its trade relations with African and Chinese markets. While the potential loss of AGOA would harm key sectors in South Africa, such as automotive, food, and clothing exports, Mene emphasized that these challenges could be turned into opportunities. He suggested leveraging the AfCFTA to enhance intra-African trade, which remains underdeveloped due to infrastructural and logistical barriers. “This is what all of us, I believe, should work towards – a diversified export market through the AfCFTA,” Mene said.
Tensions between South Africa and the United States, particularly over the Expropriation Act and foreign policy differences, have heightened concerns about the expulsion. AGOA is set to expire in September this year, unless president Donald Trump agrees to extend it. If AGOA ends, South Africa risks losing more than $55 billion in non-crude exports. However, since South Africa was not the only country under threat of AGOA expulsion, Mene said, there was reason to believe the entire program might be scrapped altogether or otherwise redrawn with more reciprocation demanded by the US. Yet, Mene remains optimistic, encouraging businesses to pursue new markets through the AfCFTA, which promises to reduce trade barriers and facilitate smoother transactions across the continent.