Middle East tensions cast shadow over fragile African regions

As the conflict between Israel and Iran escalates, security analysts warn of potential destabilization in already volatile regions of Africa, particularly the Horn of Africa and the Sahel.
Though both countries have limited economic and diplomatic presence in Africa, their regional entanglements and alliances could produce indirect but serious consequences. Hendrik Maihack of Germany’s Friedrich Ebert Foundation says interconnected conflicts near the Red Sea, including in Somalia and Sudan, are at risk of intensifying. Iran’s backing of Houthi rebels, who in turn cooperate with Somalia’s al-Shabab militants, could strengthen transnational terror networks. Meanwhile, Iran has reportedly supplied weapons to Sudan’s armed forces, while Israel maintains ties with Ethiopia and has had informal relations with both sides in Sudan’s civil war. The Horn of Africa is “currently in its deepest crisis in nearly 30 years.” Maihack said, warning of a spillover if Middle Eastern tensions persist.
Despite this, Romane Dideberg of Chatham House emphasizes that both countries lack a coherent Africa strategy, with limited diplomatic or economic presence. As a result, fallout from the conflict is expected to manifest mainly through indirect effects: disrupted trade routes, heightened oil prices, and expanding “security gaps” amid shifting global priorities. Benjamin Augé of the French Institute for International Relations argues that while Africa could experience economic ripples — like minor fuel price hikes — the continent is not central to either nation’s foreign strategy. Both Iran and Israel maintain minimal diplomatic and economic footprints across Africa, and their historical relationships have weakened over time. While African governments may issue cautious statements grounded in international law — particularly in response to Israel’s recent strikes — most are unlikely to take sides. In short, Africa will feel tremors — but not a quake — from this Middle Eastern crisis.