Morocco occupies a central place in managing migration along Europe’s south‑western frontier, according to Frontex’s Annual Risk Analysis 2026/2027, which highlights the growing cooperation with Morocco to curb illegal flows.
The report highlights how migration trends remain uneven despite a broader decline in arrivals.
Irregular border crossings into the EU fell by about 26% in 2025 to roughly 178,000 detections, but pressure continues to shift between corridors, particularly affecting routes linked to North Africa.
In this context, Morocco is described as a central actor along the Western Mediterranean route, one of the main corridors linking North Africa to Spain.
Crossings on this route include maritime departures and attempts to enter the Spanish enclaves of Ceuta and Melilla, and involve migrants from Morocco, Algeria and Sub‑Saharan Africa.
Frontex data show that this corridor can deviate from broader EU trends. In the first quarter of 2026, detections on the Western Mediterranean route reached 4,402, a 66% increase compared with the same period in 2025, even as most other routes recorded declines.
By contrast, the report notes a strong contraction in migration pressure on the Atlantic route toward the Canary Islands. Detections on this route fell by around two‑thirds in 2025, reflecting a drop in departures from Morocco.
Frontex links such developments to a combination of factors, including cooperation with Morocco, strengthened border controls and changes in smuggling networks’ behaviour.
At the same time, Frontex underlines that Morocco continues to function as a transit and departure country within the migration system affecting the EU. The agency notes that pressure along the Western Mediterranean route remains sensitive and capable of increasing rapidly, reflecting the influence of economic conditions, regional instability and the activities of organised smuggling networks.
