A clear line has emerged: northern Mali will be the key to changing regimes in Mali, Niger, Burkina Faso, Chad, and Mauritania, according to experts in Tel Aviv and at the United Nations.
From his residence in Algeria, at the heart of Sahelian influence networks, Imam Mahmoud Dicko is no longer merely a diffuse moral authority, but is increasingly acting as a spiritual leader, as in Iran.
Kidal, Gao, and Timbuktu—three names, three symbols, three territories of the Malian state—are now where the “Guide” is focusing his efforts, with directives from Algerian intelligence services.
Whoever controls these territories does not just control cities; they control routes, alliances, and regional balances.
According to local sources in Tamanrasset, the situation on the ground is reportedly marked by worrying signals. A battalion of the Algerian army belonging to the 4th military region is said to have joined the 6th military region this week and split into five units in order to limit detection by satellite surveillance.
The Algerian regime has reportedly begun supporting armed groups and militias linked to Imam Mahmoud Dicko to occupy northern Mali and subsequently undermine the heads of state of Sahel countries, taking advantage of the military operations against Iran, and Iranian proxies.
Within security circles, a certain interpretation prevails: the project, in its geopolitical and tactical dimensions, is methodical. It seeks to reduce conflicts between jihadist factions, impose arbitration, establish a visible and respected authority, create and structure local networks, monitor the populations, and spread a form of legitimacy presented as an alternative to failing states, ultimately to control and reshape the regional order.
As in Iran, some circles openly advocate a model of leadership with a spiritual authority at the top and, beneath it, a disciplined armed network acting as an executive arm.
Officially, Mahmoud Dicko remains exiled in Algeria, much like the former Iranian leader Khomeini was in France.
Unofficially, in the emerging reality, he is positioning himself as a center of decision-making, extending his influence where the Algerian state—led by President Abdelmadjid Tebboune and General Saïd Chengriha—struggles to assert itself, in order to support it for what are described as existential reasons.
