The global green hydrogen market confronts a fundamental obstacle that threatens to derail its anticipated growth trajectory. A recent policy analysis by Gi2 identifies what researchers Badr Ikken and Zineb Moulane call an “industrial paradox”—producers stand ready to invest, yet potential buyers refuse to commit without clear visibility on volumes, pricing, and technical standards.
This uncertainty creates a debilitating cycle. Without firm purchase contracts, projects struggle to achieve financial closure, delaying construction of essential production and transport infrastructure. Conversely, the absence of operational infrastructure discourages industries from restructuring supply chains around a molecule that remains commercially unavailable at scale.
The International Energy Agency has already revised downward its global green hydrogen production projections for 2030 to approximately 37 million tons annually—a 25% reduction from previous estimates. Without effective risk-sharing mechanisms between public and private actors, this declining trend appears set to continue.
Morocco presents a notable exception to this global hesitation. The kingdom possesses a rare advantage through OCP, an integrated industrial player that currently consumes one million tons of gray ammonia annually, with potential demand reaching three million tons. This substantial domestic market provides stability that few renewable energy-rich nations can match, eliminating dependence on export markets during the sector’s critical early phase.
International regulated markets offer another promising avenue. The European ReFuelEU Aviation mandate requires airlines to progressively adopt sustainable fuels—2% by 2025, rising to 70% by 2050—effectively transforming carriers into structural buyers of hydrogen-derived e-fuels. Maritime transport follows similar trajectories under International Maritime Organization guidelines, with projections indicating demand for tens of millions of tons by 2050.
Breaking this impasse requires decisive state intervention. Morocco’s coordinated institutional approach—termed “Offre Maroc”—demonstrates how coherent public action can structure emerging value chains. Germany’s H₂Global program exemplifies innovative financial mechanisms, having secured a ten-year contract for 259,000 tons of green ammonia in July 2024, significantly improving project bankability through guaranteed prices and volumes.
