The aerial strikes in the Middle East shows no sign of easing, and their economic aftershocks are beginning to weigh heavily on global markets, while in Morocco, fears of a renewed wave of imported inflation are intensifying.
The conflict could significantly alter the country’s economic trajectory just as Bank Al‑Maghrib prepares for its first monetary‑policy meeting of the year on March 17, 2026.
Until recently, the outlook for 2026 appeared unusually favourable. Growth was expected to reach nearly 5%, tax revenues continued to rise with VAT leading the way, foreign‑exchange reserves were ample with the possibility of an IMF precautionary line, and tourism was heading for another record year.
Inflation was projected at a low 1.8%, and Bank Al‑Maghrib had maintained its policy rate at 2.25% after lowering it in March 2025. The central bank was widely expected to keep this rate unchanged during the first half of 2026.
The outbreak of the conflict abruptly changed that trajectory. The Casablanca Stock Exchange reacted immediately with a drop that erased gains from the previous semester.
This underscores the strong sensitivity of Moroccan financial markets to deteriorating global conditions and reflects the magnitude of the shock now hitting the economy.
The uncertainty surrounding the duration and consequences of the war makes this moment even more perilous.
Energy is the first and most significant channel through which imported inflation is expected to return. The risks associated with transporting hydrocarbons through the Strait of Hormuz, coupled with production shutdowns in Qatar, the UAE and Saudi Arabia, heighten concerns about supply disruptions and soaring prices.
Morocco, which relies heavily on imported energy, is especially exposed to such volatility. But the impact will not stop there. The conflict is likely to drive up the cost of raw materials, food products, industrial inputs and logistics services.
Disruptions in supply chains, both domestic and international, could apply additional pressure on prices and weigh on trade. In this context, inflation could return, spreading from energy to a wide range of goods and services.
Some economists are already comparing the conditions facing the global economy to “a Covid‑19 bis in motion,” marked by unpredictability and the potential to evolve into crisis dynamics reminiscent of the oil shocks of 1973.
This new context complicates Bank Al‑Maghrib’s upcoming policy decision. The central bank must decide whether to tighten policy immediately or adopt a more cautious, wait‑and‑see approach.
