Africa turns east, but trade with China deepens dependence, warn experts

Africa’s trade with China has surged 25% in 2025, reaching $122 billion in just seven months — on track to exceed $200 billion for the first time, yet beneath the boom lies a widening trade imbalance and growing concern over Africa’s long-term economic autonomy, experts warn.
While U.S.-Africa trade has declined, especially under President Donald Trump’s protectionist policies, China has stepped in. Exports of Chinese goods — from construction machinery to solar panels — are flooding African markets, with Nigeria, South Africa, and Egypt leading demand. But African exports to China remain mostly raw materials like oil, cobalt, and copper, resulting in a $62 billion trade deficit in 2024 alone. Beijing has taken steps to sweeten the deal. In June, China granted zero-tariff access to imports from 53 African nations, further lowering barriers.
However, experts caution this does little to address structural weaknesses. While duty-free access “is a significant step towards balancing trade in the long term,” said Peter Kagwanja of the Africa Policy Institute, “Africa also needs to hasten industrialization and increase value addition to gain fully from China’s zero-tariff policy.” Meanwhile, Chinese firms dominate extraction and export sectors within Africa, repatriating profits and limiting local value retention. According to Marvellous Ngundu, a research consultant at AFI, “another challenge in Africa-China trade is that the domestic producers do not control a significant portion of Africa’s exports, but by Chinese-owned firms operating within the continent.”
The imbalance reflects a broader pattern: Africa’s trade openness has not translated into industrial growth. India is also expanding its footprint, with bilateral trade hitting a new record in 2025, while trade in services — like tourism — remains underexploited. With BRICS ties deepening and U.S. influence waning, experts argue Africa must rethink its trade strategy — not just diversify partners, but build capacity and control over its economic future. “With AGOA (African Growth and Opportunity Act) set to expire, African leaders must prioritize its renewal while also pursuing new partners and deeper intra-African trade,” concludes Ngundu.