Somalia’s Puntland claims victory over Islamic State, but future challenges remain

After nearly two months of intense combat, Puntland forces in Somalia claim to have successfully pushed back Islamic State (IS) militants, dealing significant blows to the terror group in the region.
However, despite recent victories, experts warn that the IS may attempt to regroup and continue its operations across the Horn of Africa. The offensive, which began in early February, saw Puntland forces making steady gains against IS fighters, who had entrenched themselves in the rugged mountains of Puntland. After fierce clashes, including the loss of at least 70 militants in a counterattack on the Togjaceel Valley, Puntland forces captured key positions and pushed IS fighters into multiple retreat routes. While IS has suffered heavy casualties, including the death of prominent leaders like Ahmed Maeleninine in airstrikes carried out by US forces, the group’s ability to retreat into remote areas may allow them to persist.
IS is known for its use of guerilla tactics, which could enable it to launch irregular campaigns against Puntland’s forces. Experts caution that the group’s ability to regroup, particularly in the mountainous regions, poses a long-term threat. With the support of the United States and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Puntland forces are committed to eliminating IS strongholds, but the challenge remains in securing and holding these territories to prevent a resurgence. The number of IS fighters in Somalia is estimated to be at about 1,600, according to Somali and Western counterterrorism officials, as they have been bolstered by an influx of fighters from Ethiopia, Sudan, Syria, Morocco, Tanzania and Yemen. The fate of IS-Somalia’s leadership, including Abdul Qadir Mumin, remains uncertain as Puntland continues its offensive.