Malaria in Africa: Mapping Economic Impact and Success Stories
Africa continues to bear the heaviest burden of malaria globally, with the disease slashing GDP growth by approximately 1.3 percentage points annually in the most affected nations. This economic drain, resulting from mounting medical costs, widespread absenteeism, and diminished productivity, compounds the public health crisis across the continent.
Besides, climate change threatens to worsen the situation dramatically. The Malaria Atlas Project (2025) forecasts that global warming could cause 550,000 additional malaria deaths across Africa by 2049, as flooding and rising temperatures expand mosquito habitats into previously unaffected areas, such as Ethiopia’s highlands.
Yet, despite the existing challenges, several African nations have demonstrated that malaria elimination is achievable. Morocco was among the first countries to receive the World Health Organization’s certification as malaria-free in 2010. It was preceded in 1973 by Mauritius, while Egypt and Cape Verde both received the WHO certification in 2023.
The economic benefits of elimination are substantial and multifaceted. As put by Olivia Ngou, Executive Director of Impact Africa “each dollar invested in malaria control yields a return of forty dollars.” “Yet the disease continues to cost the continent more than 12 billion dollars annually in lost productivity, healthcare expenses, and economic growth potential.”
Achieving elimination of the scourge across the continent is within reach, but requires unprecedented collaboration between scientific communities, policymakers, and local populations, supported by significant investments that anticipate and address the impacts of climate change on disease transmission, experts note.
In its 2024 Global Malaria Report, WHO reveals a concerning concentration of cases. Nigeria alone accounts for 25.9% of global cases and 30.9% of deaths, with financial losses estimated at $906 million annually. The Democratic Republic of Congo follows with 12.6% of global cases, while Uganda, Ethiopia, and Mozambique round out the top five most affected countries. Together, these nations represent more than half of all worldwide cases.
Recent trends show alarming increases in infection rates. Between 2019 and 2023, Ethiopia recorded the sharpest rise with 6.9 million additional cases, closely followed by Nigeria with 6.8 million new cases. None of these countries is currently on track to meet the WHO’s 2025 target of reducing malaria incidence and mortality by 75%.
Beyond these primary hotspots, several secondary epicenters have emerged. Madagascar saw 4.2 million new cases from 2019 to 2023, while Mali and Cameroon reported increases of 1.4 million and 1.2 million cases respectively. These regions face common challenges: seasonal rainfall creating favorable breeding grounds for mosquitoes, rapid unplanned urbanization leading to stagnant water accumulation, and limited access to rapid diagnostic tools.
