Morocco’s central bank kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 2.25% on Tuesday, citing contained inflation and steady economic recovery, while projecting growth to reach 5% in 2025 before easing to an average of 4.5% in 2026 and 2027.
Bank Al-Maghrib’s board, meeting for its fourth quarterly session of the year, said agricultural output is expected to rise 5% next year under assumptions of average cereal harvests, while non-agricultural activities should expand by 5% in 2025 and moderate thereafter.
Inflation averaged 0.8% in the first ten months of 2025 and is forecast at 0.8% for the full year, before accelerating to 1.3% in 2026 and 1.9% in 2027. Core inflation is seen stable at 0.7% through 2026, rising to 1.9% in 2027.
The bank said fiscal consolidation will continue under the 2026 budget and three-year programming plan, while external accounts remain resilient. The current account deficit is projected at 1.8% of GDP in 2025, staying below 2% through 2027, supported by higher exports of phosphates and autos and strong tourism receipts.
Foreign reserves are expected to reach 448 billion dirhams by end-2027, covering about five and a half months of imports. Credit to the non-financial sector is forecast to grow 4.1% in 2025 and 5% in the following two years.
Bank Al-Maghrib said it will continue to monitor economic conditions and adjust policy as needed.
