BMI-Fitch cuts Morocco’s growth forecast to 4.8% despite recovery signs
International research firm BMI, a Fitch Solutions subsidiary, has revised Morocco’s 2025 economic growth forecast downward to 4.8%, from a previous estimate of 5%. The adjustment reflects cautious optimism amid an uncertain agricultural recovery and mixed signals in public and private investment.
The revision follows Morocco’s High Commission for Planning data showing real GDP growth of 4.8% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2025, up from 4.2% in the fourth quarter of 2024. This improvement was primarily driven by agricultural sector recovery, which grew 4.5% after severe drought and contraction in 2024.
Despite this progress, BMI-Fitch maintains a prudent outlook. The agricultural sector, representing 12-14% of GDP, remains a major volatility factor. While improved rainfall and favorable growing conditions supported the first-quarter rebound, analysts warn against assuming a solid medium-term trajectory until climate resilience efforts become fully operational.
The agricultural recovery remains fragile and dependent on irregular rainfall patterns. This structural dependence on climate variables continues limiting macroeconomic visibility, according to BMI analysts.
The downward revision occurs as Morocco accelerates large-scale investment projects in energy, infrastructure, digital technology, and agro-industry. The government relies on deploying new investment packages and 2030 World Cup-related projects to stimulate economic activity.
However, administrative delays, complex business climate challenges for SMEs, and slow fiscal reform implementation continue hampering these investments’ real impact on national productive capacity. BMI also highlights tepid private sector credit recovery, remaining below potential levels.
The 4.8% growth projection, while below previous estimates, exceeds the 2019-2023 average marked by pandemic effects, drought, and international tensions. BMI estimates controlled inflation through Bank Al-Maghrib’s prudent monetary policy and preserved budget stability despite increasing social spending pressures.
Morocco faces persistent structural challenges including limited youth and women’s economic inclusion, low non-agricultural productivity, territorial imbalances, and slow public governance reforms.