Morocco’s avocado export campaign opens this year in an unprecedented competitive landscape for the European market, with five major producing countries expected to supply Europe simultaneously through the winter, according to an analysis by Moroccan exporter Unique Packing. Combined shipments from Chile, Colombia, Israel, Spain and Morocco could reach roughly 500 million kilograms between weeks 40 and 12, or nearly 5 million four-kilogram cartons a week over 25 weeks, a volume the market can theoretically absorb but one that makes shipment timing more decisive than total supply.
Unlike the Peru-dominated summer season, winter sees several producers sharing the European market simultaneously, raising the risk of overlapping harvest peaks. Chile is expected to open the campaign with a record 280,000-ton harvest, including roughly 100,000 tons bound for Europe, while Colombia could see production rise around 25 percent despite uncertainty over fruit size and quality. Israel is preparing an exceptional season too, with production potentially reaching 300,000 tons against roughly 240,000 a year earlier, and export potential of up to 165,000 tons, nearly 100,000 of them Hass avocados concentrated between weeks 51 and 12, leaving Morocco a particularly favorable commercial window between weeks 45 and 51.
Morocco’s main commercial argument this year rests on harvest quality, with abundant production and a wide size distribution, mainly between sizes 14 and 22, a mix the analysis says could prove decisive in European markets where large sizes 14 and 16 are scarcer among several competitors. The more common sizes, 18 to 22, will still make up most marketed volumes and need steady placement to avoid market saturation.
The report stresses that commercial discipline matters as much as production this year, recalling that Morocco exported relatively low volumes early in the previous campaign, a strategy likely to prove costlier this time given that January and especially February will see simultaneous arrivals from Israel, Colombia and Spain.
The analysis recommends more regular marketing from the season’s opening to preserve sales continuity and avoid operators delaying shipments in hopes of better prices, a practice that could deepen imbalances once competing volumes arrive. Unique Packing is also investing in a new packing station capable of processing up to 70 additional trucks weekly, reinforcing its capacity to handle larger volumes through the campaign.
