Morocco is bucking a global trend on corporate insolvencies, recording a decline in business failures at a time when the rest of the world is heading into a fifth consecutive year of rising defaults. According to a report published on April 22 by trade credit insurer Allianz Trade, Morocco’s corporate insolvencies fell two percent in 2025 to 15,307 cases, reversing a record peak of 15,658 recorded in 2024. The trend is expected to continue, with a further two percent decline forecast for 2026 and a four percent contraction in 2027.
The improvement places Morocco in a select group of economies expected to see insolvency reductions in 2026, alongside Hungary, Norway, Spain, Estonia, Singapore, and Denmark. At the global level, the picture is starkly different: Allianz Trade projects a six percent increase in worldwide business failures this year, driven primarily by the economic disruptions stemming from the conflict in the Middle East, which is pushing up energy costs, freight rates, and supply chain disruptions on a global scale.
The Middle East conflict has prompted the insurer to revise downward its earlier forecasts for a global stabilization in insolvencies. What was previously expected to plateau in 2026 has now been pushed to 2027. Allianz Trade estimates the direct impact of the conflict at roughly 7,000 additional insolvencies globally in 2026 and 7,900 in 2027. In a scenario of prolonged blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, the global toll could rise by an additional ten percent this year.
France stands out as a particularly troubled case, with insolvencies expected to reach a new record of nearly 69,900 in 2026, while the United States is projected to reach 26,750 cases, a nine percent increase. China faces a nine percent rise as well, while Europe, as a whole, concentrates the bulk of the employment risk, with 1.3 million jobs estimated to be directly at threat on the continent in 2026 — of which 960,000 in Western Europe alone.
Despite the positive direction of travel, Morocco’s performance needs to be contextualized. Even at the projected 2027 level of 14,300 cases, the country would still be running roughly 78 percent above its pre-pandemic baseline of 2016–2019. The insolvency correction under way reflects structural resilience and improving economic conditions, but full normalization remains a medium-term objective rather than an immediate outcome.
