The IMF kept its 2026 growth forecast for Tunisia at 2.1% in its April regional outlook but warned that the economy remains highly exposed to external shocks, particularly energy price volatility linked to the war in Iran and disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz.
In its Regional Economic Outlook for the Middle East and Central Asia, the IMF said Tunisia’s modest growth projection assumes a gradual normalization of global energy markets and no further escalation in regional hostilities.
It cautioned that a prolonged or renewed spike in oil prices could quickly derail that baseline.
Tunisia, a net energy importer with limited fiscal buffers, is especially vulnerable to swings in global prices, the Fund said. Higher energy costs would raise production expenses, widen the trade deficit and weigh on domestic demand, potentially pushing growth well below current projections.
The IMF warned that holding domestic fuel prices steady to protect households is absorbing the shock in the short term but significantly raises subsidy costs, risking a further widening of the budget deficit. It estimated that energy-related pressures could increase the fiscal gap by around 0.5 percentage point of GDP this year.
Energy imports already account for a large share of Tunisia’s trade deficit, and persistent high prices could renew pressure on foreign-exchange reserves and the dinar, the Fund said.
While inflation has slowed to about 5% year-on-year, the IMF cautioned that sustained energy price shocks could reignite inflation through higher transport, food and import costs, eroding purchasing power and complicating monetary policy.
