The World Bank forecasts economic growth in the Middle East and North Africa region will reach 3.6% in 2026 before accelerating to 3.9% in 2027. These estimates, featured in the updated Global Economic Prospects report, were slightly revised downward compared to the institution’s June projections.
The downward revision primarily reflects larger-than-expected oil production increases from major petroleum countries in 2025 and consequently anticipates lower expansion in 2026-2027. According to the World Bank, this dynamic will be supported by export growth recovery, with net exports returning to positive contribution in 2026-2027, alongside more vigorous private investment progression.
The report indicates MENA regional activity has already strengthened, primarily through rising oil production in exporting countries and private sector dynamism in oil-importing countries. Within this framework, oil-importing country growth has consolidated, benefiting from general economic activity improvement.
Concerning Gulf Cooperation Council countries, the World Bank highlights that growth should accelerate to 4.4% in 2026 and 4.6% in 2027, driven by steady non-hydrocarbon activity progression combined with rising oil and gas production.
Conversely, the Bank indicates non-GCC oil-exporting countries’ growth rates should remain relatively weak, averaging around 2% annually in 2026-2027. This situation stems from activity slowdown amid tightening trade restrictions and diminishing budget support in certain countries.
In oil-importing countries, the World Bank forecasts growth should increase slightly, reaching an average 4% annually in 2026-2027, though with notable variations across economies. The projections reflect divergent trajectories within the region, with hydrocarbon-rich nations managing production levels while diversification-focused economies pursue structural reforms.
Regional stability remains contingent on oil price dynamics, geopolitical developments, and reform implementation effectiveness. The anticipated private investment increase signals growing confidence in MENA markets, though infrastructure gaps and governance challenges continue requiring sustained attention across multiple countries.
