Tariff tensions trim Africa’s 2025 growth forecast, warns AfDB

Africa’s economic growth is expected to hit 3.9% in 2025, up from 3.3% in 2024, but still lower than previously projected, according to the African Development Bank (AfDB).

In its latest African Economic Outlook report, released during its ongoing annual meeting in Côte d’Ivoire, the Bank downgraded its forecast by 0.2 percentage points, citing uncertainty caused by new U.S. trade tariffs and global retaliatory measures. The AfDB also revised its 2026 forecast downward by 0.4 points to 4.0%, warning that shifting global trade dynamics could further hamper Africa’s economic recovery. “Since January 2025, the world has experienced additional shocks,” the report said, adding that these “include a plethora of new tariffs imposed by the United States and retaliatory measures announced and implemented by its trading partners.”

Though the U.S. only accounts for 5% of Africa’s global trade, the economic fallout is already being felt through lower commodity prices and devalued financial assets. The impact may deepen if the U.S. ends its current 90-day pause on “Liberation Day” tariffs. Despite the global headwinds, growth above 5% is expected in 21 African countries, with Ethiopia, Niger, Rwanda, and Senegal set to surpass 7%. The Bank also urged African nations like Nigeria to accelerate revenue reforms, including digital tax platforms and broader taxpayer registration, to improve fiscal resilience amid global uncertainties.