A dramatic leadership collapse in Tehran is sending strategic shockwaves across North Africa, posing what analyst Amine Ayoub warns could be an existential challenge for Algeria.
In an op‑ed published in The Times of Israel, Ayoub argues that the destabilization of Iran deprives Algiers of a long‑relied‑upon diplomatic and ideological pillar that has allowed it to project influence beyond its means.
For decades, Algeria publicly claimed non‑alignment while privately leveraging ideological alignment with Iran. According to Ayoub, Tehran’s anti‑Western and anti‑Israel messaging provided Algiers with the vocabulary and political cover it used to justify resistance to Morocco’s growing diplomatic and security integration with Israel.
With Iran’s internal turmoil disrupting that alliance, Algeria risks losing a key narrative tool that has helped maintain its domestic and regional positioning.
Ayoub notes that Iran also supplied Algeria with informal influence networks, such as Iranian cultural channels, political linkages, and proxy‑aligned structures that complemented Russian arms supplies.
A weakened or inward‑focused Tehran, he says, removes these asymmetric levers, diminishing Algeria’s ability to shape regional events at low cost.
The fallout is especially significant in the Sahel, where Ayoub argues that Algeria has struggled to preserve its traditional role as a stabilizing power. Iran had increasingly viewed the region as a space to expand anti‑Western influence, offering Algiers a potential partner as military juntas and insurgent groups reshaped the security environment. Without Tehran’s reach.
Ayoub writes, Algeria finds itself facing a deteriorating Sahel largely alone.
Domestically, the loss of Tehran’s ideological backing threatens the regime’s reliance on a “resistance” narrative to justify its insular and confrontational policies. With Morocco deepening ties with Israel and expanding alliances with Western and Gulf actors, Ayoub concludes that Algeria risks drifting into deeper geopolitical isolation unless it recalibrates its strategy and embraces regional integration.
