US needn’t be too concerned about China’s basing ambitions in Africa — study

Despite regular warnings by US military commanders about a possible second Chinese military base in Sub-Saharan Africa and rumors about new footholds in countries like Equatorial Guinea, China’s strategic interest in Africa is relatively low, especially when compared with regions like Southeast Asia and the Middle East, according to a new policy brief published by the Brookings Institution.
Compared to other regions, sub-Saharan Africa is not a high strategic priority for China, Russia, or the United States, so writes Dawn C. Murphy, an expert on national security strategy at the Washington-based National War College, whose latest policy brief maps Chinese and Russian military engagement in the region. Most of the vital interests of these three powers are in Asia, Europe, the Western Hemisphere, and the Middle East. That said, in recent years, US concerns about Chinese and Russian basing in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) have grown, largely owing to the two countries’ increased desire to project power and influence globally.
But each country has different interests and capacities in sub-Saharan Africa, and US strategy in the region should account for what drives these powers’ basing behavior. Although China and Russia’s growing attention to sub-Saharan Africa is evident and may be concerning, expanded Chinese basing and increased Russian aggression in other, more vital regions are much more significant threats to the interests of the US and its allies and partners. Preventing Chinese and Russian basing in sub-Saharan Africa should be a lower priority.
Of course, the US can and must adjust its strategy in response to the evolving security dynamics, Murphy writes. Within the region, the US government should focus on preventing basing on the west coast of Africa that could provide China naval access to the Atlantic and basing in East Africa that could significantly impact sea lines of communication (SLOCs) and provide China with more power projection capability in the Indian Ocean. Other potential Chinese basing locations in the region should be less of a concern. The US should not just focus on basing, however, but also consider how other military agreements, cooperation, and port access amplify China’s ability to project power and threaten the SLOCs.