Algeria: If Army Chief does not change, he will be removed, warns UK think-tank

If Algeria’s Chief of Staff, Army General Saïd Chengriha is not seen to be changing, he is likely to be removed and President Tebboune will not stand by Chengriha if the army turns against him, said a London-based Think-tank in its latest report on the ruling military regime in Algeria.

The radical cut to the army’s budget and the renegotiation and/or cancellation of several arms contracts with Russia, Tebboune’s reprobation of Wagner Group’s presence in the Sahel and the postponement or even possible cancellation of Tebboune’s planned visit to Moscow — were all the result of US pressure on the regime to cut or reduce its fraternization with President Vladimir Putin’s Russia, said the analysis of Menas Associates.

The American pressure has also pushed the Algerian junta to cancel the Desert Shield joint military exercises with Russian forces near Béchar last November.

According to the British think-tank which provides actionable intelligence, the key questions now are not only what next but also how do these developments affect the Algerian army — especially its Chief Gen. Chengriha — and the regime as a whole?

The army, and especially Chengriha, will be perceived as very weak unless both are seen to be more aligned to the West. If Chengriha does not change, he risks removal, said the report of Menas Associates, noting that there are many imponderables that will have a bearing on the mood within the army and the regime as a whole.

On the international front, Russia’s war against Ukraine, especially the way in which it comes to an end, will be telling. The way in which US-China relations develop over the next couple of years could also have a major influence.

The major determinants, however, are domestic. Although the international oil price will be as important as always, the biggest problem facing Algeria lies within the regime itself, underlined the British political risk consultancy.

The biggest and most delicate problem is the fact that 35 generals, many of whom held powerful positions, are currently in prison. Their continued imprisonment on highly questionable charges, such as the case of the dismissal of Major General Djamel Hadj Laaroussi, could become explosive, while their release could open up equally dangerous and wholly unpredictable recriminatory actions.

Furthermore, a large question mark hangs over the future of General Mohamed Kaïdi. He was generally regarded as the logical successor to the late General Ahmed Gaïd Salah as the Chief of Army Staff. However, he was dismissed in November 2021, presumably on the orders of General Chengriha, and was arrested a month later, since when he has been held in some form of detention.

Kaïdi’s release and reinstatement was one of the key demands made by US Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman during her 10 March 2022 visit to Algiers, and again by US Secretary of State Antony Blinken during his 30 March visit to Algiers, said the report.

Citing reliable sources, Menas Associates said that General Kaïdi has been released though no announcement has been made. His return to his job will largely depend on how Chengriha reacts over the next few days and weeks.