A 20% rise in global oil prices could shave 1.6% off Morocco’s GDP and put more than 5% of its workforce at risk, highlighting the country’s exposure to energy shocks linked to tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, according to a report by the Policy Center for the New South (PCNS).
The Moroccan think tank said the impact would ripple through key sectors including refined fuels, transport, agriculture, construction and fertilizers, illustrating how an external energy shock could quickly spread across the broader economy.
Morocco, a net energy importer, would bear the full brunt of higher oil prices without the offsetting benefit of hydrocarbon revenues, the report said, warning of “private sector losses without public windfall gains”.
The study, based on OECD input-output models, estimates that about 5.2% of Morocco’s workforce is concentrated in sectors most sensitive to fuel and imported inputs, exposing jobs in transport, textiles and fisheries in particular.
The vulnerability is compounded by Morocco’s reliance on Gulf supplies for key fertilizer inputs. Around 75% of its sulphur and 30% of its ammonia imports originate in the region, making the Strait of Hormuz a critical chokepoint not only for energy but also for the country’s phosphate industry.
“As these supplies tighten, Morocco’s ability to sustain fertilizer output and support global agricultural markets could be significantly constrained,” the report said.
Rising input costs are already feeding into fertilizer prices, with knock-on effects expected for crop yields, rural incomes and food security.
The analysis comes against the backdrop of heightened geopolitical tensions involving the United States, Israel and Iran, which have raised concerns over disruptions to shipping routes carrying oil, gas and industrial inputs.
Beyond Morocco, the report warned of broader global implications, arguing that control over strategic choke points such as Hormuz is increasingly shaping economic stability, supply chains and geopolitical alignments.
