Morocco’s economic growth is expected to moderate slightly from 4.6 per cent in 2025 to 4.4 per cent in 2026 and 4.0 per cent in 2027, according to projections of the European Bank for Reconstruction & Development.
In its latest Regional Economic Prospects, the Bank says strong tourism and remittances have continued to support external balances, helping offset a wider trade deficit. Inflation remains low, with slight deflation recorded in early 2026 as food prices declined.
Morocco’s central bank has kept its policy rate unchanged at 2.25 per cent, while reserves remain at comfortable levels, covering close to six months of imports.
Regarding the economic situation in the southern and eastern Mediterranean (SEMED) region, the Bank expects growth to slow to 2.5 per cent in 2026 from 3.1 per cent in 2025, before picking up to 4.2 per cent in 2027.
Tourism and remittances have continued to bring in foreign currency to the region, helping to offset pressures from higher import costs. However, the conflict in the Middle East has intensified strains, disrupting trade routes, pushing up energy prices and fueling inflation.
Uncertainty remains high, says EBRD, warning that a prolonged conflict could keep oil and gas prices elevated, weaken investment and tourism, disrupt supply chains and raise borrowing costs, particularly for countries with high debt and large financing needs.
Governments have introduced measures to curb energy demand and shield households and businesses from rising fuel costs. The impact of regional tensions is expected to be uneven. Economies with stronger financial buffers are better positioned to withstand external shocks, while countries exposed to conflict spillovers and financing pressures face greater risks.
According to EBRD estimate, prolonged instability could weaken investment, tourism and trade, while driving up borrowing costs.
