Morocco’s manufacturing sector is expected to register a rise in output during the first quarter of 2026, according to the latest quarterly business survey published by the High Commission for Planning, offering a more optimistic outlook after a subdued start to the year recorded by Bank Al-Maghrib’s January data.
The anticipated recovery is expected to be driven primarily by three branches: food industries, chemical manufacturing, and fabricated metal products. These segments are projected to lead the production upturn, partially offsetting expected contractions in automotive manufacturing and non-metallic mineral product fabrication. On the employment front, manufacturers broadly anticipate a modest increase in headcount over the same period.
The picture is more cautious in other industrial segments. Extractive industries — notably phosphate producers — are projecting a decline in output for the first quarter, even as operators in that sector expect to add workers. The energy sector also anticipates a production decrease, linked primarily to lower activity in electricity, gas, steam, and air conditioning distribution, with employment also expected to fall. Environmental industries, covering water treatment and distribution, project broadly stable production and workforce levels.
These forward-looking indicators build on a fourth-quarter 2025 performance that showed manufacturing output rising, with automotive, chemical, non-metallic minerals, and metallurgy all posting gains. Overall capacity utilization in manufacturing stood at 74 percent for the quarter, with order books at normal levels and employment stable.
Headwinds remain. Thirty-five percent of manufacturing companies reported raw material supply difficulties in the fourth quarter of last year, predominantly sourced from abroad. Treasury conditions were described as tight by 18 percent of operators overall — a figure that rose to nearly 40 percent among pharmaceutical manufacturers, highlighting pockets of financial strain within an otherwise cautiously improving industrial landscape.
