Morocco has been identified among countries where installed steel production capacity exceeds domestic demand, according to the latest monitoring bulletin from the Global Forum on Steel Excess Capacity. The classification comes as the worldwide gap between production capacity and actual consumption reached 179.6 million tons in the third quarter of 2025 — a 1.4 percent increase year-on-year driven not by new factory construction but by weakening global demand.
The imbalance is reshaping trade dynamics. Steel exports rose to represent 27.8 percent of total global production during the period, as producers increasingly turned to foreign markets to compensate for sluggish domestic consumption. International flat steel export prices fell 6.7 percent on average in 2025, with a stark price gap persisting between forum members and structurally overcapacity economies — export prices within the forum remain roughly 1.7 times higher than Chinese prices.
Africa is feeling the competitive pressure directly. Imports from overcapacity economies accounted for 20.5 percent of regional steel demand in the third quarter of 2025, intensifying challenges for local manufacturers. For Morocco specifically, China ranks as a major supplier alongside Turkey and several European countries, with competitive pressure most acute in flat products and certain semi-finished goods used in downstream transformation.
Morocco has responded with trade defense measures. Anti-dumping investigations launched in October 2024 target certain steel imports including Chinese products, part of a global wave that saw 64 new trade defense cases filed worldwide during the first nine months of 2025. However, the forum notes that volumes covered by such measures remain modest relative to total global trade.
The situation poses a fundamental strategic question for Morocco’s steel sector: whether domestic demand growth can eventually absorb existing capacity, or whether producers must pursue stronger export positioning and deeper regional integration to restore competitive balance.
