Al-Shabab looses its grip on Somalia, yet more terrorist attacks are expected

Al-Shabab has been on a gradual retreat in Somalia since the announcement of a “total war” against the al-Qaida-affiliated militant group by Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud in August 2022, and, according to experts, this could be the beginning of al-Shabab’s end.
Mohamud announced the “total war” against the group days after it staged a deadly hotel siege in Mogadishu, killing at least 21 people and wounding more than 100 others. The decision to increase Somali government military operations in July came as local clans in central Somalia were revolting against the presence and the oppression of al-Shabab in their territories. Al-Shabab has since reportedly ceded territories and major towns in the central Somali regions, with government officials saying more than 2,000 al-Shabab fighters have been killed. The Somali government is now preparing to launch new battlefronts in southern parts of the country, Somalia’s defense minister said Friday (27 January).
“Since the government offensive began with the support of local citizens, who are fed up with the group’s oppressions, al-Shabab has been losing territories and former strongholds in central regions,” says Ismail Dahir Osman, former deputy commander of Somalia’s National Intelligence and Security Agency. “Thanks to Somali government military operations backed by local clan militias and foreign partners, including the United States,” he said. But even if the jihadi group is now damaged by multiple defeats and its retreat continues, the Somali government acknowledges that the dangerous ideology is very much alive and expects warn of more terrorist attacks planned and commissioned by the group.