The Moroccan central bank, Bank Al Maghrib, kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 2.25 percent following its third quarterly board meeting of 2026, citing elevated uncertainty linked to geopolitical tensions and their impact on global supply chains and key inputs for domestic industries.
In a statement after the meeting, the central bank said the decision reflects the high level of uncertainty surrounding the economic outlook, the moderate medium-term path of inflation, and the expected consolidation of non-agricultural activity.
The Bank reiterated that it will continue to closely monitor domestic and external developments and base future decisions, meeting by meeting, on the most up-to-date data.
Inflation is projected to average just 0.7 percent for the full year 2026 before rising to 1.5 percent in 2027.
The central bank noted that the impact of higher global energy prices on domestic consumer prices has so far remained limited, partly thanks to support measures for road transport operators and the maintenance of administered prices for butane gas and electricity.
On growth, BAM revised its 2026 forecast downward to 4.4 percent, from 4.9 percent in 2025, and projects a further slowdown to 2.9 percent in 2027.
The current account deficit is expected to widen significantly, rising from 2.4 percent of GDP in 2025 to 4.6 percent this year, before narrowing to 3 percent in 2027.
The deterioration is driven by higher input prices and, in particular, a sharp rise in the energy bill, which is projected to increase by 28.4 percent to 138.1 billion dirhams in 2026 before easing to 116 billion dirhams in 2027.
Offsetting factors include solid performance in key export sectors and services. Tourism receipts are expected to continue their strong upward trajectory, with travel revenues projected to reach 160 billion dirhams by 2027.
Automotive exports are forecast to recover gradually and reach 202.2 billion dirhams in 2027, while phosphate and derivative exports (led by OCP) are expected to strengthen, rising 9.7 percent this year and a further 12.1 percent next year to 122.6 billion dirhams.
Official foreign exchange reserves are projected to stand at 502.8 billion dirhams by the end of 2026 and 515.3 billion dirhams in 2027, covering approximately five and a half months of imports.
