Forecasts for Morocco’s listed banks have been revised downward for 2026 amid a pullback in market activities and heavier-than-expected digital investment, though analysts expect growth to accelerate again from 2027, Attijari Global Research (AGR) said. The listed banking sector posted cumulative net banking income of 49.8 billion dirhams in the first half of 2026, up 1.5 percent year-on-year, after a 4.5 percent first-quarter decline to 23 billion dirhams driven by a 47.3 percent contraction in market activities.
AGR now expects sectoral net banking income to grow just 1.1 percent in 2026, down from an initial forecast of 4.8 percent, attributing the shift mainly to the reversal of Morocco’s yield curve amid an unstable geopolitical context and renewed inflation risk. At Banque Centrale Populaire, market activities’ contraction dragged first-quarter net banking income down 17.6 percent, prompting AGR to cut its 2026 growth forecast for the bank from 4.3 percent to negative 3.9 percent. At Attijariwafa bank, AGR now expects a 4.6 percent decline in market activities but has maintained its 4.7 percent net banking income growth forecast, as credit growth offsets the shortfall.
Rising digital investment is adding further pressure on costs, with Attijariwafa bank’s management expenses now expected to rise 5 percent in 2026, up from an initial 3.3 percent forecast, pushing its expected cost-to-income ratio to 38 percent from 34.9 percent. Despite weaker revenue, first-quarter net income attributable to the group rose 2.2 percent to 5.8 billion dirhams sector-wide, helped by credit dynamics and improved recovery efforts that limited the impact of weaker market activities and higher costs.
AGR expects a catch-up effect from 2027, driven by the normalization of market activities, continued credit growth and accelerating public investment ahead of 2030, projecting average annual growth of 6.9 percent for sectoral net banking income and 9 percent for net income between 2026 and 2028. Despite these fundamentals, banking stocks continue trading at a discount, at a 2026 price-to-earnings ratio of 12 times against 18.8 times for the broader market, which BMCE Capital Global Research’s Khadija El Moussily attributes to a lack of major strategic catalysts and caution around regulatory tightening rather than any underlying weakness.
