Morocco’s population is projected to rise from 36.8 million in 2024 to 43.3 million in 2060, but growth will slow sharply as the country enters a period of near demographic stagnation, according to new projections from the High Commission for Planning (HCP).
Under the agency’s central scenario, the population would expand by 17.8% over the next 36 years, adding an average of about 182,000 people annually.
The annual growth rate, estimated at 0.7% in 2024, is expected to gradually fall towards zero by 2060, it said.
The projections highlight rapid urbanization and population ageing as the main demographic trends shaping Morocco over the coming decades.
The urban population is forecast to reach nearly 32.5 million by 2060, accounting for around three-quarters of Morocco’s total population, while the rural population would decline to about 10.8 million, HCP said.
Falling fertility rates are expected to shrink younger age groups. The number of children aged 6-11, corresponding broadly to primary-school age, is projected to fall by 27% to 3.04 million by 2060, while the preschool population would decline by nearly 24%, HCP said.
HCP said the smaller school-age population could allow policymakers to focus less on expanding capacity and more on improving the quality of education.
Morocco’s working-age population, defined as those aged 15-59, is expected to continue growing, rising from 22.1 million in 2024 to nearly 25 million in 2060. However, most of the increase will occur in cities, with the urban working-age population rising by more than a third, while the rural workforce contracts by a quarter, it said.
The number of people aged 60 and above is projected to more than double, from 5 million in 2024 to 10.9 million in 2060, lifting their share of the population to 25.2% from 13.6%, the agency said.
The population aged 70 and over is expected to triple to 6.3 million.
The trend would increase pressure on pension systems, healthcare services and social protection, making population ageing one of Morocco’s defining long-term policy challenges, HCP added.
