Bank Al-Maghrib’s Council is scheduled to meet on Tuesday 23 June to set its monetary policy stance for the third quarter of 2026. A review of the latest available macroeconomic indicators points toward a hold on the key rate at its current level of 2.25 percent, with neither an increase nor a cut appearing well-supported by the data.
Inflation remains contained. The consumer price index rose 1.7 percent year-on-year in April 2026, with food prices up a modest 0.6 percent and transport costs advancing 8.4 percent as fuel prices surged 21.8 percent in monthly terms. Crucially, core inflation contracted by 0.3 percent year-on-year, signaling that price pressures have not yet generalized across the economy — a reading that neither justifies a rate increase nor calls for immediate easing.
Growth dynamics support continued caution. The High Commission for Planning projects GDP growth of 4.7 percent in the second quarter, driven by an agricultural rebound, household consumption growth of 4.2 percent and sustained investment. Bank credit is expanding at 7.8 percent year-on-year, with equipment loans rising a robust 14.5 percent — evidence that monetary transmission is functioning and that financial conditions are already accommodating without further stimulus.
The external sector remains a source of vigilance. Morocco’s goods trade deficit widened by 18.4 percent to 127 billion dirhams to end-April, with the energy bill rising 12 percent. Remittances and tourism receipts provide a partial buffer, but a rate cut could marginally stimulate further import demand without correcting the structural imbalance.
The tentative Iran-US agreement and the resumption of transit through the Strait of Hormuz have eased oil prices, reducing the near-term risk of imported inflation. However, Bank Al-Maghrib is expected to treat this as conditional until negotiations are further advanced. Maintaining the rate at 2.25 percent represents the most calibrated response — preserving accommodative conditions while retaining room for adjustment if circumstances change.
