The June 2026 Economic Outlook, published by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) under the title “Under Pressure”, projects Moroccan GDP growth to reach 5 percent in 2026 — the strongest performance in several years — following 4.6 percent in 2025, before a moderation to 3.9 percent in 2027. Two forces are driving the acceleration: exceptional winter rainfall that is expected to produce a 15 percent rebound in agricultural output, and sustained public investment in major infrastructure programs.
Private consumption has been supported by declining inflation, improved consumer confidence, and rising export and tourism revenues, though the report notes that a Middle East energy conflict has begun to introduce fresh headwinds.
The most significant structural vulnerability identified by the organization is energy dependence: 90 percent of Morocco’s energy needs are covered by imports. The country is grouped with Turkey, Pakistan, and several Southeast Asian economies in this respect. The immediate consequences are already visible — inflation, which fell to 0.7 percent in 2025, is projected to rebound to 3.2 percent in 2026 as energy and food costs rise.
The current account deficit is expected to widen from 2.2 percent of GDP in 2025 to 3.1 percent in 2026 and 3.3 percent in 2027. The OECD recommends accelerating renewables deployment and strengthening energy efficiency standards across buildings, vehicles, and industrial equipment.
The phosphate sector presents a paradox. Representing 21 percent of Morocco’s export revenues in 2025, it stands to benefit from a redirection of global fertilizer demand away from Gulf producers disrupted by the regional conflict.
Yet the sector’s own production of phosphate fertilizers depends on imported ammonia and sulphur from those same Gulf economies, meaning Morocco’s competitive advantage is exposed to the very disruption that creates it. The OECD flags this circular risk explicitly.
Labor market indicators remain a concern. While overall unemployment edged down from 13.4 to 13 percent in 2025, youth unemployment stands at 37.2 percent and female unemployment at 20.5 percent — both described as high. The organization recommends expanded childcare provision, targeted action on gender stereotypes, vocational training, and labor code flexibility accompanied by stronger incentives for formal employment. On public finances, the fiscal deficit is on a credible consolidation path from 3.9 percent in 2024 towards 3 percent in 2026-2027, supported by revenue growth and a broadening tax base.
Five structural reform priorities are outlined: reducing informality, strengthening human capital, boosting productivity, combating corruption, and accelerating the energy transition. On corruption, the OECD notes that while Morocco’s institutional framework has been strengthened, perceived corruption in public procurement remains high and demands further attention. The report also highlights Morocco’s trade concentration risk: the European Union accounts for 60 percent of goods exports, while the United States represents only 3 percent — limiting direct tariff exposure but retaining significant indirect vulnerability via the European economic cycle.
