The National Agency for Forests and Water (ANEF) has issued a formal warning about an elevated forest fire risk for the summer of 2026, sounding an alarm that contains a paradox at its core: the abundant winter rainfall that benefited Morocco’s agricultural ecosystems and restored dam levels has simultaneously generated an exceptionally dense biomass that, under summer heat conditions, becomes highly flammable and capable of accelerating both the ignition and propagation of fires.
The concern is timely. Temperatures reaching close to 45 degrees Celsius in several regions at the end of May signal a summer that could prove particularly severe. The climate context amplifies the risk: 2025 was the third warmest year on record globally, following 2024 and 2023, and the three-year average has now crossed the 1.5 degree Celsius warming threshold above pre-industrial levels — the limit that international climate agreements have set as a critical boundary.
Morocco’s 2025 forest fire season was, by recent historical standards, relatively controlled. A total of 418 fires were recorded, affecting 1,728 hectares — a decline of 65 percent from the decade-long average and one of the lowest tallies in twenty years. Critically, 94 percent of those fires were contained before reaching five hectares, reflecting significant improvements in early detection and rapid response capacity. However, the geographic concentration of the risk remains acute: the Tanger-Tétouan-Al Hoceima region accounts for 40 percent of fires nationally and 89 percent of burned surface area — a disproportion that has remained stubbornly persistent across multiple seasons.
For the 2026 season, ANEF will deploy 1,493 fire watchers across the national territory. The program, worth 150-million-dirham-budget, covers the maintenance of forest trails and fire breaks, the stocking and maintenance of water points, and public awareness campaigns directed at communities living adjacent to forested areas.
The forest fire challenge sits within Morocco’s broader climate adaptation agenda. The country’s forests cover approximately 7.3 million hectares and provide critical ecosystem services ranging from water cycle regulation and carbon sequestration to soil protection and biodiversity conservation. Their preservation is explicitly integrated into Morocco’s Nationally Determined Contribution under the Paris Agreement, and the 2022-2030 national reforestation program targeting the planting of 600,000 hectares. A severe fire season would set back these objectives significantly, adding urgency to the ANEF’s warnings.
