Morocco’s Central bank has decided to maintain its key interest rate unchanged at 2.25 % due to the continued strong momentum in economic activity, the projected moderate levels of inflation, and the significant uncertainty surrounding the global outlook.
The decision was made Tuesday by the Bank’s Board after analyzing national and international economic developments, as well as Bank’ medium-term macroeconomic projections. Particular attention was given to recent developments related to the war in the Middle East, which are increasing the already high level of uncertainty, particularly in connection with the conflict in Ukraine and U.S. trade policy and thus severely testing the resilience displayed by the global economy during the recent years.
The consequences of this war, already noticeable in financial markets and commodity prices, notably energy, will depend to a large extent on its length, scope, and intensity, said Bank Al Maghrib.
Highly favorable weather conditions prevailing this year are expected to result in a significant increase of agricultural production. Based on the Bank’s estimates, which rely on a sown area of 3.9 million hectares, the harvest of the three main cereals is projected to reach 82 million quintals.
After an estimated growth of 5 percent in 2025, Bank Al-Maghrib anticipates a rebound in agricultural value added of 14.4 percent in 2026, followed by a decrease of 5.3 percent in 2027, assuming a return to an average cereal output.
At the same time, supported mainly by strong investment momentum in economic and social infrastructure, growth in non-agricultural activities is expected to remain robust, hovering around 4.5 percent. Overall, Morocco economic growth would have improved to 4.8 percent in 2025 and is expected to reach 5.6 percent in 2026, before slowing to 3.5 percent in 2027.
As to inflation in Morocco, it continued to evolve at low levels, supported by improved supply of some food products and lower fuel prices. Over the medium term, while these effects are fading and oil prices are set to increase under the baseline scenario, inflation is expected to gradually accelerate while remaining at moderate levels. Consequently, it should remain virtually unchanged at 0.8 percent year-on-year in 2026, before reaching 1.4 percent in 2027.
