Morocco’s economy is projected to grow 4.2% in the first quarter of 2026, up from 4% in the fourth quarter of 2025, according to forecasts published January 13 by the High Commission for Planning. Despite an international environment marked by weakening external demand and tightening European regulatory constraints, the national economy demonstrates resilience, driven primarily by internal engines.
The High Commission attributes the slight growth acceleration essentially to strong performance in agricultural and tertiary activities, with combined contributions reaching 2.9 percentage points. The agricultural sector benefits from a 57% rainfall increase during the first two months of the 2025-2026 campaign, coupled with public support measures for farmers. Assuming normal winter weather conditions, this dynamic should improve employment and rural incomes, stimulating household consumption.
Services, particularly non-market services, tourism, transportation, and leisure, continue supporting economic activity. The Africa Cup of Nations Morocco 2025 generated positive spillover effects reinforcing these sectors, particularly toward year-end.
Household final consumption is projected to grow 3.9% in the first quarter 2026, while investment maintains an elevated pace at 9.8%, driven by continued public infrastructure spending. Domestic demand thus remains the primary growth driver, partially offsetting weak external trade.
However, the High Commission warns about persistent unfavorable international conditions. Moderate European demand, rising American customs duties, and intensifying Chinese competition continue weighing on Moroccan exports. Additional regulatory constraints include the European carbon border adjustment mechanism and French legislation limiting certain offshoring activities. Under these conditions, goods and services export growth would be limited to 3.9%, well below the five-year average.
In late 2025, economic growth stabilized around 4% after a more dynamic first semester. Manufacturing industry slowdowns, particularly in metallurgical, electronics, and textile sectors, were offset by strong agricultural and services performance. Meanwhile, inflation continued its decline for the third consecutive quarter, reaching -0.1% in the fourth quarter 2025 due to falling food and energy prices.
