Morocco’s Ministry of Equipment and Water, through its Water Research and Planning Directorate (DRPE), is preparing a major twelve-month study to identify, evaluate, and adapt the hydraulic simulation models best suited to the country’s specific climatic, geographic, and hydrological conditions. The initiative responds to a clear institutional diagnosis: existing tools used to plan and manage Morocco’s water resources are not adequately calibrated to the country’s realities or to the accelerating impacts of climate change, which is intensifying drought cycles and increasing precipitation variability across all major river basins.
The study is structured around three sequential phases. The first is a comprehensive inventory of existing models, both domestically — surveying tools used by the Hydraulic Basin Agencies, engineering consultancies, and universities — and internationally, benchmarking solutions deployed by countries facing comparable water stress. A detailed diagnostic report will map available solutions and assess Morocco’s specific modelling needs.
The second phase applies a rigorous multi-criteria evaluation framework to select the most appropriate model, assessing ease of use, compatibility with local data formats, interoperability with existing systems, and — critically — the capacity to integrate climate change scenarios, including drought intensification and precipitation variability projections.
The third phase translates the selection into operational deployment, applying the chosen model to two pilot hydraulic basins — one in the north, one in the south — chosen to represent the geographic diversity of the country’s water systems. The deliverable is a working planning and optimization tool capable of analyzing hydraulic performance across long historical data series, simulating future adaptation scenarios, and supporting real-time decision-making on water releases and allocation among competing domestic, agricultural, and industrial users.
The functional requirements are demanding. The model must handle variations in river flows, anticipate drought and flood episodes, generate hydraulic balances by infrastructure unit, and manage interconnected hydraulic complexes. It must also capture the interactions between surface and groundwater, which are critical for understanding how dam and aquifer systems interact under different rainfall and extraction scenarios. The project explicitly includes a capacity-building dimension: in-depth training of DRPE engineers and a technical exchange mission to a leading country in hydraulic planning, benefiting at least twelve Moroccan engineers and experts.
The urgency of the initiative is grounded in stark data
Morocco’s available freshwater per capita has fallen to approximately 600 cubic meters per year, well below the international scarcity threshold of 1,000 cubic meters. Rapid urbanization, demographic growth, and agricultural expansion are intensifying demand precisely as supply becomes more erratic. The country’s response — a ninefold increase in desalination capacity since 2021, accelerated dam construction, and now the upgrading of hydraulic simulation tools — reflects a government that has moved from reactive crisis management to proactive water governance as a strategic imperative.
