After recording one of its wettest winters since 1981, Morocco faces a sobering meteorological counterpoint: a growing scientific consensus around the likely return of El Niño as early as summer 2026, a development that could reverse the country’s recent hydrological recovery and reignite the drought conditions that battered the Kingdom for seven consecutive years.
Both the World Meteorological Organization and the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration have flagged an elevated probability — estimated between 60% and 62% — of an El Niño episode developing between June and August 2026. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts has modeled even higher probabilities, placing the likelihood of at least a moderate event at 98% by August. In the most alarming scenario, a so-called ‘Super El Niño’ — characterized by prolonged droughts, disrupted rainfall cycles, and cascading temperature anomalies — carries a 22% probability.
For Morocco, the implications are particularly acute. The Mediterranean basin is classified as one of the world’s most drought-sensitive regions, with climate projections already anticipating a 20 to 30% long-term reduction in water inflows by 2050. The 2023–2024 El Niño episode contributed to the country’s severe multi-year drought, leaving dam fill rates as low as 25% in early 2024. Although this winter’s exceptional rainfall has pushed national reservoir levels to 70.7%, experts caution that this recovery remains fragile and could be quickly erased by another dry cycle.
A returning El Niño — amplified by ongoing anthropogenic climate change — would test the resilience of Morocco’s ambitious water security investments, including its expanding desalination program and the national water highway project currently under development. The window between now and mid-year represents a critical planning horizon for authorities seeking to translate this season’s water surplus into durable infrastructure buffers.
