IATA cuts 2025 profit forecasts amid economic headwinds

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) downgraded its 2025 projections Monday, forecasting fewer than five billion air trips this year compared to the previously anticipated 5.22 billion, as the aviation sector faces mounting economic uncertainties.
During IATA’s annual general assembly in New Delhi, the organization revised industry profit expectations to $36 billion, down $600 million from earlier estimates. Commercial aviation revenue is now projected at $979 billion, falling short of the $1 trillion milestone envisioned last December.

Air cargo volumes also face downward revision, with IATA expecting 69 million tons of freight traffic versus the 72.5 million tons initially forecast. These adjustments reflect broader challenges confronting the global aviation sector as it navigates an increasingly complex economic landscape.

“The first half of 2025 has brought significant uncertainties to global aviation markets,” noted IATA Director General Willie Walsh. Without directly naming President Donald Trump, whose administration launched trade offensive measures in early April, targeting partners including the European Union, Walsh urged policymakers to spare the aviation sector from increased tariffs.

Despite these “headwinds,” Walsh maintained cautious optimism, suggesting 2025 should prove “a better year for airlines than 2024.” IATA, representing 350 carriers worldwide and claiming 80% of global air traffic, continues monitoring market conditions closely.

The revised forecasts underscore aviation’s vulnerability to geopolitical tensions and trade disputes, even as the industry recovers from pandemic-related disruptions. Airlines must now recalibrate strategies to address softer demand projections while managing operational costs amid uncertain global economic conditions that threaten to constrain both passenger travel and cargo shipments throughout the year.