Ethiopia and Eritrea Teeter on Brink of New Conflict

Ethiopia and Eritrea could be headed toward renewed warfare, regional officials warn, threatening another humanitarian disaster in the Horn of Africa. Such a conflict would involve two of the continent’s largest military forces and potentially draw in additional regional powers.

The alarming developments would effectively destroy the historic peace agreement that marked a significant diplomatic breakthrough in 2019. Experts caution that renewed hostilities would create yet another crisis in a region where millions already face humanitarian challenges amid funding shortfalls.

“At any moment war between Ethiopia and Eritrea could break out,” warned General Tsadkan Gebretensae, vice president in Tigray’s interim administration. The tensions stem from the aftermath of the devastating 2020-2022 Tigray conflict, which claimed hundreds of thousands of lives.
Complicating matters, the Tigray People’s Liberation Front split into rival factions last year—one administering Tigray with federal approval and another in opposition. This week, the dissident faction seized control of the northern town of Adigrat, prompting Getachew Reda, head of Tigray’s interim administration, to request government intervention.

“What concerns me is that the Tigray people may once again become victims of a war they don’t believe in,” Reda stated during a recent press conference.

Military movements by both nations signal escalating tensions. Eritrea reportedly ordered nationwide mobilization in February, while Ethiopia has deployed troops toward the border region this month, according to multiple diplomatic sources.

The deteriorating situation represents “dry tinder waiting for a match,” according to former regional envoys, who view the prospect of war as increasingly realistic given the historical animosities and recent geopolitical maneuvering in the strategically vital Red Sea region.