Africa’s booming oil exports to Europe to result in more pollution

Majority of oil trade routes are now at least five times longer as supplier and buyer dynamics have changed dramatically after the Western sanctions imposed on Russia over its invasion of Ukraine, raising the prospect of increased emissions.

Most pre-war oil trade routes that took 5-6 days prior to the Russia-Ukraine war can now take average of 30 days, which is the result of Europe’s diversification shifted away from Russian suppliers and toward those in West Africa, Latin America, and the United States.

Meanwhile, Russia reoriented 90% of its crude exports away from European markets to the East, most notably to China and India. For the Russian oil, “it was a five- or six-day journey, but today’s average voyage from West Africa or Latin America to Europe is about 25 days, which is five times longer than it used to be,” said Viktor Katona, an analyst from the data and analytics firm Kpler,

Nigeria and Angola have over the past year emerged as largest West African oil suppliers to Europe, filling the void left by the absence of Russian crude. More crude supplies from West African countries are making the longer voyage of approximately 25 days to Europe. While Nigeria became the biggest supplier to Europe among West African countries, Angola increased crude exports the most — from an average of 33,000 barrels a day in February 2022 to over 300,000 barrels per day today.

The Netherlands saw the biggest rise in crude flows from West African countries after the war. These longer shipping routes are likely to raise emissions from shipping, an industry that accounts for 3% of global carbon emissions. The biggest increase in terms of voyage times comes from Russia’s crude shipping to India. Exports from West African, US and Latin American to Europe also contribute to significantly more emissions.