Bank Al-Maghrib expects Morocco’s economic growth to slow to 4.4% in 2026, from 4.9% in 2025, before falling to 2.9% in 2027, as a strong agricultural rebound this year gives way to an expected decline next year. The central bank’s latest forecasts project agricultural value added to rise 16% in 2026 on a cereal harvest of about 93 million quintals, before falling 7.6% in 2027 if production returns to a more typical 50 million quintals.
Non-agricultural activity is also expected to slow, from 4.5% growth in 2025 to 3.1% in 2026, before recovering to around 4% in 2027. The labor market has nonetheless continued creating jobs: about 406,000 positions were added in the second quarter of 2026 compared with a year earlier, and the strict unemployment rate fell to 9.5% nationally, though a new survey methodology introduced this year makes the figures not directly comparable with earlier data.
External pressures are building. The energy import bill is projected to rise 28.4% to about 138.1 billion dirhams in 2026 before easing to around 116 billion in 2027, while capital goods imports are expected to climb 15.6% this year. The current account deficit is forecast to widen to 4.6% of GDP in 2026, from 2.4% in 2025, before narrowing to 3% in 2027, partly offset by phosphate exports expected to grow 9.7% and reach 122.6 billion dirhams.
Official reserves are projected to reach 502.8 billion dirhams by end-2026 and 515.3 billion by end-2027, covering about five and a half months of imports. Ordinary government revenue grew 9.6% over the first eight months of 2026 while total spending rose 10.5%, pushing the budget deficit, excluding privatization revenue, to a projected 3.4% of GDP in 2026 and 3.5% in 2027.
Bank Al-Maghrib kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 2.25% at its September meeting, while credit to the non-financial sector is expected to accelerate to 8.1% growth in 2026, up from 4.8% in 2025. The bank’s assessments indicate the dirham’s value remains broadly consistent with fundamentals, even as its real effective exchange rate is expected to decline in both 2026 and 2027.
