Fitch Ratings has affirmed Morocco’s Long-Term Issuer Default Rating at BB+ with a Stable Outlook, citing the Kingdom’s sound macroeconomic policies, adequate external liquidity buffers and strong support from official creditors.
The affirmation also reflects a relatively favorable debt profile, according to the rating agency.
Fitch expects the central government fiscal deficit to widen to 4.0 percent of GDP in 2026 from 3.5 percent in 2025, driven by temporary spending linked to the Hormuz Strait crisis.
Higher energy prices have increased subsidy costs through larger butane gas compensation payments, continued support for transport operators and higher transfers to the national electricity and water company.
The agency forecasts the deficit will average 3.4 percent of GDP in 2027-2028 as these temporary pressures ease and energy prices normalize.
Capital expenditure is projected to remain elevated at an average of 7.5 percent of GDP, supporting preparations for the 2030 FIFA World Cup, with most investments carried out by state-owned enterprises and off-budget entities. Central government debt is expected to remain relatively stable at 67 percent of GDP by 2028, above the projected ‘BB’ category median of 51 percent.
Fitch noted that refinancing and exchange-rate risks remain contained thanks to the long maturity of the debt stock, the predominance of fixed-rate instruments and access to concessional external financing.
Morocco’s external position is underpinned by foreign exchange reserves that reached $48 billion at the end of 2025, Fitch said, adding that reserves are expected to average 5.1 months of current external payments over 2026-2028.
