Morocco’s domestic demand is projected to grow 5.9 percent in 2026, moderating to 3.4 percent in 2027, while retaining its role as the principal engine of economic growth, according to the High Commission for Planning’s (HCP) Exploratory Economic Budget 2027. Domestic demand is expected to contribute 6.5 points to GDP growth in 2026 and 3.8 points in 2027, with the HCP noting that this dynamism would be driven by a consumption rebound combined with an investment effort that, although decelerating, would preserve a robust growth trajectory despite persistent external uncertainties.
Household final consumption is projected to grow 4.4 percent in 2026 before slowing to 2.4 percent in 2027, contributing approximately 2.5 points to growth in 2026 and 1.3 points in 2027. This trend is rooted in the consolidation of wage gains, rising agricultural incomes and continued strength in remittances from Moroccans Residing Abroad (MRE) — factors expected to keep supporting household purchasing power despite rising inflation, partially offset by the effects of a favorable agricultural season that would limit food inflation. Morocco’s direct social aid program is expected to continue acting as a buffer, protecting the consumption of the most vulnerable households.
Public administration final consumption is projected to grow 4.2 percent in 2026 and 3.9 percent in 2027, contributing close to 0.8 points and 0.7 points to growth respectively. Taken together, national final consumption would rise 4.4 percent in 2026 and 2.8 percent in 2027, supporting growth by around 3.3 points and 2.1 points in each year.
Gross investment is expected to be driven in 2026 and 2027 by accelerating infrastructure linked to preparations for major international events, alongside sustained investment efforts by public institutions and enterprises. Gross investment is projected to grow 9.5 percent and 4.8 percent respectively in 2026 and 2027, contributing 3.2 points and 1.7 points to growth. The domestic savings ratio would continue its upward trajectory, reaching 25.1 percent of GDP in 2026 and 25.6 percent in 2027.
Accounting for net external income, expected to average around 6.1 percent of GDP between 2026 and 2027, national savings would continue improving to approximately 31.3 percent of GDP in 2026 and 31.6 percent in 2027. The resulting external financing need would stand at 3.9 percent of GDP in 2026, easing to 3.6 percent of GDP in 2027.
