Morocco’s economy is among the most resilient in Africa to external shocks from the war in the Middle East, helped by stronger foreign‑exchange reserves and broader financing options, S&P Global Ratings said, even as it warned that prolonged disruption could strain the sovereign credit outlook.
In its assessment of African sovereign exposure, S&P said Morocco is less exposed than many peers, citing developed domestic capital markets.
While acknowledging a “high degree of unpredictability” surrounding the duration and scale of the Middle East conflict and its impact on commodity prices, supply chains, economies and credit conditions, S&P said that its baseline forecasts carry significant uncertainty.
Alongside Nigeria, Angola and Congo‑Brazzaville, Morocco was identified as better positioned to absorb external shocks, compared with more vulnerable countries such as Egypt, Mozambique and Rwanda.
S&P assumes an average Brent crude price of about $85 per barrel for the rest of 2026, after prices rose around 50% year‑to‑date, increasing import costs for most African economies, which are net importers of fuel and fertilizers.
The agency warned that higher energy and fertilizer prices are likely to raise inflation, worsen current account balances and increase fiscal pressures, potentially forcing some governments to reconsider recently phased‑out fuel subsidies. Across rated African sovereigns, fuel subsidies average about 0.3% of GDP, though outliers such as Angola spend significantly more.
Morocco benefits from deeper local capital markets, S&P said, which help diversify funding sources and partially offset rising global refinancing costs.
S&P affirmed Morocco’s ‘BBB-/A‑3’ sovereign ratings with a stable outlook in March, noting that a more prolonged or renewed escalation in the Middle East conflict would pose broader risks to African economies and credit profiles.
