The African Development Bank (AfDB) has forecast steady economic growth for Morocco at 4% in 2026 and 4.3% in 2027, following an estimated performance of 4.4% in 2025, according to the institution’s latest report on Africa’s Macroeconomic Performance and Outlook. The projections position Morocco among the continent’s most resilient economies, underpinned by a broad and diversifying base of growth drivers.
The AfDB identifies several key engines behind Morocco’s momentum: a recovery in agricultural output supported by improved rainfall and a government-led livestock rebuilding program, rising tourism revenues, sustained public investment in transport modernization, and stronger manufacturing productivity led by phosphate production and higher value-added exports from the automotive and aerospace sectors.
On the monetary front, Bank Al-Maghrib has kept its benchmark rate on hold following several consecutive cuts, signaling that inflation is well under control. The AfDB projects Morocco’s average inflation at just 1.9% for 2026-2027, one of the lowest rates on the continent. The budget deficit is expected to hold at 3.1% of GDP over the same period, while the current account deficit should stabilize at around 2.5% of GDP. The solidity of Morocco’s foreign exchange reserves has also played a key role in cushioning external pressures and preserving financial stability.
At the regional level, North Africa is on a sharp recovery path. The AfDB estimates regional growth at 4.1% in 2025, up from 2.7% in 2024, with further acceleration to 4.2% in 2026 and 4.4% in 2027. Libya leads with an estimated 12.4% growth in 2025 driven by a rebound in oil output, while Egypt benefits from strong FDI in port infrastructure and industrial zones. Mauritania, Algeria and Tunisia also contribute to the regional upturn, each at varying paces.
At the continental level, Africa’s growth is projected at 4.2% in 2025, rising to 4.3% in 2026 and 4.5% in 2027, making it one of the world’s fastest-growing regions. However, the AfDB notes that risks remain — including debt pressures, geopolitical instability, climate shocks, and declining foreign aid flows — and calls for structural reforms, stronger domestic resource mobilization, and deeper regional integration under the African Continental Free Trade Area.
