Morocco’s fertility rate fell to 1.97 children per woman in 2024, dropping below the replacement threshold of 2.1 and pushing the country deeper into a demographic transition that is reshaping its economic, social and territorial landscape.
The trend, confirmed by the 2024 General Census and highlighted by population experts, shows that Morocco is moving into an era where ageing, not population growth, will define national policy choices.
The High Commission for Planning (HCP) describes a fundamental reversal of the age pyramid. It found fewer children and a growing number of older adults. Census findings show a sharp reduction in the share of under-15s, while seniors over 60 continue to rise rapidly, confirming Morocco as an ageing society.
This stems from decades of falling fertility, from 7.2 children per woman in the 1960s to below two today, combined with rising life expectancy, now at 76.4 years.
One immediate consequence of low fertility is a decline in school-age pupils, which experts argue could allow a long-awaited pivot from quantity to quality. With fewer children entering the system, resources could be redirected toward teacher training, foundational learning, and digital infrastructure.
The census already shows a shrinking share of minors and forecasts a continued reduction through 2040, a trend consistent with Morocco’s movement into late-stage demographic transition.
Morocco is currently benefiting from a favorable worker-to-dependent ratio, as the working-age population continues to expand, from 22.1 million in 2024 to a projected 24.8 million by 2040.
This means Morocco must accelerate reforms on female labor participation, youth employment and the informal sector. UNFPA research shows that economic insecurity, housing constraints and childcare shortages remain major barriers to both fertility choices and labor force engagement.
The demographic pivot is most visible in ageing. The number of Moroccans over 60 is projected to grow from 5.1 million in 2024 to nearly 7.9 million by 2040, raising the old-age dependency ratio and putting pressure on pensions and healthcare. Chronic illness, disability prevalence, and rural ageing further amplify the cost of care and the need for specialized services, especially geriatric and long-term care.
