Africa’s ‘conflict corridor’ from Mali to Somalia doubles in size in three years, new report warns

Conflicts in Ukraine, in the Middle East, but particularly across Africa, have expanded the conflict-affected areas across the world by 65% since 2021 to encompass 4.6% of the entire global landmass, up from 2.8% three years ago, according to the latest Conflict Intensity Index (CII), published by risk analysts Verisk Maplecroft.

Myanmar, flashpoints in the Middle East, but especially the so-called “conflict corridor” around Africa’s Sahel region have seen wars and unrest spread and intensify since 2021, with far-reaching impacts on global economic growth and food security, says the new report. “Conflict risks are increasing, they have for the last few years and global businesses need to think about that,” says Hugo Brennan, research director at Verisk Maplecroft, referring specifically to the Russia-Ukraine war, which disrupted grain exports to the Middle East and Africa, and attacks by Houthi rebels from Yemen on Red Sea shipping.

Meanwhile, Africa’s “conflict corridor” covering the Sahel and Horn of Africa, which now spans more than 6.000 kilometers from Mali in the west to Somalia in the east, has doubled in size in the last three years, the report warns. As a result, the size of conflict affected areas in 14 countries across the Sahel and East Africa now equates to around 10% of sub-Saharan Africa’s overall land mass. According to the Conflict Intensity Index, fatalities as a result of fighting across the ‘conflict corridor’ are expected to increase by the end of 2024 by over 50% compared to 2021. The escalation is most pronounced in Burkina Faso, where 86% of the country is now embroiled in conflict between state forces and militants. Also, conflict zones in the civil wars in Sudan and Ethiopia have expanded by more than 20% and 30% respectively, while armed violence in Nigeria now affects almost half of the country’s territory.