Morocco has no sector classified as high risk in Allianz Trade’s new global Sectoral Risk Atlas, though five activities warrant particular vigilance, Le Matin reports, as the insurer paints a globally resilient picture of the Kingdom’s economy despite a tense international environment. Of the 18 sectors assessed for Morocco, four carry low risk, reflecting solid fundamentals: pharmaceuticals, agri-food, software and IT services, and computing and telecoms, all benefiting from non-cyclical demand or digitalization-driven growth even amid global pressures such as climate impacts on farming or the reshaping of software business models by generative AI.
Nine Moroccan sectors sit in the medium-risk category, associated by Allianz Trade with “signs of weakness” and “possible slowdown” rather than structural deterioration. These include automotive, described globally as caught in a competitiveness battle against Chinese manufacturers, with 76 percent of European suppliers expecting margins below 5 percent in 2026, alongside chemicals, paper, electronics, retail, machinery and equipment, transport equipment and household appliances.
Five Moroccan sectors fall into the “sensitive risk” category, reflecting structural weaknesses and unfavorable prospects: construction, transport, textiles, metals and energy. For energy, the Atlas describes a global split between oil and gas producers benefiting from elevated Brent prices and a renewables segment facing rising financing costs and power purchase agreements sometimes insufficient to cover capital costs. Transport remains weighed down globally by Red Sea and Strait of Hormuz disruptions, longer shipping routes and elevated fuel prices, while textiles, where Morocco has a significant export base, face both raw-material and energy price volatility eating into margins and increasingly price-elastic Western household demand favoring second-hand goods and discount stock.
Construction stays classified as sensitive-risk worldwide, still hampered by restrictive financing costs curbing residential and commercial demand, while metals present a mixed picture between copper, lithium and rare-earth segments buoyed by electrification and AI infrastructure demand, and a steel segment described as durably struggling. Allianz Trade’s report situates its sectoral analysis within a broader “three-speed” global economy shaped by the AI investment supercycle, trade war tensions and geopolitical fragmentation, with global growth expected to slow to 2.5 percent in 2026 before rebounding to 2.9 percent in 2027, roughly a third of US growth alone attributed to AI-linked investment.
Beyond Morocco, the report highlights sharp divergence between major blocs: 2.1 percent growth expected for the US, just 0.9 percent for the eurozone, against 4.7 percent for China, powered by exports and its high-tech manufacturing base despite subdued domestic demand. Overall, Allianz Trade positions Morocco within a broadly well-managed risk zone, with no sector in outright crisis, though the five flagged sectors warrant particular attention from companies and their financial partners over coming quarters.
