AU mediators arrive in South Sudan in bid to prevent return to civil war

African Union (AU) mediators have arrived in South Sudan’s capital, Juba, to try to urgently address rising tensions in the country and prevent a return to civil war.
The arrival of the so-called “Council of the Wise” follows the recent house arrest of first vice president Riek Machar, a move that has deepened the political crisis in the country. Machar’s detention came after weeks of violent clashes in the Upper Nile state, where government forces and the White Army militia, once allied with Machar’s forces during the 2013-2018 civil war, have been engaged in conflict. The AU delegation, which includes former Kenyan judge Effie Owuor and former Burundian president Domitien Ndayizeye, is tasked with de-escalating tensions and safeguarding the 2018 peace deal that ended the devastating five-year conflict.
The AU’s Peace and Security Council has called for Machar’s immediate release, warning that his detention threatens the fragile peace process. The SPLM-IO, Machar’s political party, welcomed the mediation efforts, underscoring the importance of dialogue in maintaining stability. However, political challenges are exacerbated by the ongoing war in neighboring Sudan, which has led to an influx of weapons and heightened regional instability. With the potential for the conflict to reignite along ethnic lines—between Kiir’s Dinka and Machar’s Nuer factions — regional and international actors are increasingly concerned about the risk of broader regional instability.
“Thus far the world is largely responding with a collective sigh of resignation and indifference,” says a new commentary published by the New York-based Council on Foreign Relations (CFR). South Sudan faces challenges due to corrupt leadership and ethnic divisions, hindering stability, the CFR commentary points out. Policymakers are frustrated by the country’s volatility, with many exploiting social mistrust for political gain. The AU’s “Council of the Wise” is attempting to mediate and de-escalate tensions in Juba, but doubts remain about their success, following the failure of previous efforts like Raila Odinga’s. “The time for conflict prevention is rapidly expiring, while the potential costs of war continue to rise,” the post concludes