Rising tensions in Ethiopia’s Tigray threaten regional stability, warns ACSS report

A new report warns of escalating rivalries among Tigrayan political leaders, raising fears that these tensions could derail the process of reintegrating the region into Ethiopia’s federal structure, ultimately spiraling into a broader conflict involving neighboring Eritrea and other regional powers.
A fragile ceasefire, signed in November 2022 between Ethiopia’s government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), ended a devastating two-year war, but the report published by the Washington-based Africa Center for Strategic Studies warns of persistent instability as rival factions vie for control of Tigray’s transitional authority. The conflict is centered around a leadership dispute between TPLF leader Debretsion Gebramichael and his former deputy, Getachew Reda, leader of the Tigray Interim Administration (TIA). The disagreement over the control of the Tigray Defense Forces (TDF) has further polarized the region, with Debretsion accusing the TIA of stalling the reintegration process and Getachew defending the administration’s neutrality.
The situation has worsened, with TDF forces loyal to Debretsion seizing key locations, including the regional radio station in Mekelle, and tensions mounting along the Eritrean border. Despite the Ethiopian federal government’s insistence on a unified approach to Tigray’s reintegration, the power struggle continues to undermine progress. With Eritrean forces still present in parts of Tigray and the looming risk of renewed conflict, international actors, including the African Union and the United Nations, have called for urgent mediation. The stakes are high, as the instability in Tigray could destabilize the entire Horn of Africa, already grappling with crises in Sudan and beyond. The need for sustained dialogue remains critical to prevent further escalation. “With multiple armed actors in close proximity, the risk of miscalculation and provocation by political spoilers is high,” the report warns.