South Sudan: Looming civil war amid rising tensions, stalled peace efforts

South Sudan is facing a looming threat of civil war as political tensions between president Salva Kiir and vice-president Riek Machar escalate, the United Nations has warned.

The fragile peace, established by the 2018 agreement, which ended years of conflict between Kiir and Machar, is at risk of unraveling as both leaders struggle to resolve deep-rooted ethnic divisions and military confrontations. Nicolas Haysom, the top UN official in South Sudan, described the situation as “dire,” with ongoing clashes between government troops and the rebel militia, the White Army, in the north. This militia, believed to be allied with Machar, has been a source of escalating violence, particularly in Upper Nile state. Tensions reached new heights after a 4 March attack, when the White Army overran a military garrison in Nasir, prompting the government to take retaliatory actions against Machar’s allies.

The political landscape is further complicated by rampant misinformation, hate speech, and ethnic polarization, exacerbating fears of a return to the brutal conflict that devastated the nation in 2013. The delay of national elections, initially set for 2023 but now postponed until 2026, has also contributed to rising uncertainty. Haysom stressed that international efforts, including UN shuttle diplomacy, can only succeed if both leaders prioritize national unity over personal rivalries. Without commitment from Kiir and Machar to uphold the peace agreement, South Sudan risks plunging into another devastating civil war.